Belarus’ foreign policy
What do Lukashenka's statements about “exposed terrorist networks supported by the West” and the “attempt” on the propagandist Azaronak testify to?
The pressure on the regime from the three sides will only intensify.
The Belarusian authorities’ forced landing of the Vilnius-bound Ryanair Flight 4978 at Minsk airport, on May 23, and the arrest of the opposition NEXTA Telegram channel founder Roman Protasevich, who was traveling aboard the plane, raised the political crisis happening inside Belarus since last August to the top of the global agenda (see EDM, May 24, 25). Much uncertainty remains about which actors were actually behind this special operation not to mention their real motives and ultimate goals.
In a ritual that is becoming as frequent as it is increasingly empty, Alyaksandr Lukashenka is heading to Russia yet again to meet with Vladimir Putin.
As Belarus braced for a fresh round of protests this week and as opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya called for tough new sanctions against Alyaksandr Lukashenka’s regime in a Congressional testimony, the Kremlin has been busy laying the groundwork to tighten its grip on Russia’s far smaller but strategically important western neighbor.
Moscow is considering, among other things, rather tough approaches.
Although Belarus and China established diplomatic relations in 1992, and adopted a joint declaration on establishing a comprehensive strategic partnership in 2013, the most dynamic cooperation between Minsk and Beijing has been developing over the past few years.
China's interest in Belarus looks to be cooling despite its warm words for embattled strongman Alexander Lukashenko, who is attempting to withstand unprecedented protests and intense geopolitical pressure.
This report is part of the Bertelsmann Stiftung’s Transformation Index (BTI) 2020. It covers
the period from February 1, 2017 to January 31, 2019. The BTI assesses the transformation
toward democracy and a market economy as well as the quality of governance in 137 countries.
In response to Russia's efforts, Minsk seeks to reassert and enhance its commitments to regional and international security, while preserving and expanding Belarus’s strategic autonomy within the alliance with Russia.
In the mid-1990s, Minsk signed several treaties and agreements with Moscow that prioritized a pro-Russian geopolitical orientation...
Talks in Sochi last December confirmed that Belarusian-Russian relations have reached an impasse
The Belarus–Russia talks on “deepening the integration” have been controversial and have resonated both internationally and domestically.
Yuri Tsarik reflects on the negotiations held in Sochi on December 6-7
The domestic agenda remains focused on the upcoming election campaigns, while the government approach is growing tougher. In its foreign policy, Belarus bets on diversification and finds common ground with long-standing opponents.
Part six in the series ‘Russian Media: Moscow and Beyond Calling’: Russia’s information influence on Belarus
Last month saw the launch of campaigns for MPs in both chambers of Belarusian parliament, and the country’s continued active interaction with its partners in the international arena.
Analysis by Yuri Tsarik and László Vasa
Yuri Tsarik on the Kremlin’s strategy for “deepening integration” with Belarus
Parliamentary elections are finally scheduled in Belarus.
Following predictions by Russian military intelligence (GRU) that the West wants to separate Belarus from Russia and incorporate it into the Western orbit...
Yury Tsarik considers how and why Belarusian-Russian relations have hit a new low
March saw a shift of accents in the work of the government and media in Belarus. Excessive attention to tensions in Belarus-Russia relations in January-February was replaced by an emphasis on domestic and economic policies. However, these accents turned out to be mostly negatively colored as well.
Belarus’s ongoing drive to cautiously normalize relations with the West has raised concerns from Russian military intelligence...
In February 2019, Belarusian leadership paid increased attention to the issues of information security.
Arseny Sivitsky, Director of the Center for Strategic and Foreign Policy Studies, participated in the “Big Conversation with the President” of Republic of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko — meeting with representatives of general public, expert community, Belarusian and foreign mass media.
Yuri Tsarik contends that relations between Russia and Belarus may have reached an “integration impasse,” but there were at least a few constructive results from February’s bilateral talks in Sochi.
The Kremlin’s concerns about maintaining Belarus within its geopolitical sphere of influence have been mounting as of late
Belarus further tightens control over its domestic political field. Without Russia’s support, the outlook for its economy is gloomy. Meanwhile, the standoff with Moscow switches from open to positional.