Global and regional security
The authors of the report make a brief analysis of the international and internal situation of Belarus on the eve of and in relation to the Russian-Ukrainian war of February 24, 2022 and the inertia of the political crisis of 2020. The authors characterize this situation as a complex existential crisis in the history of modern Belarus, threatening the very existence of the Belarusian statehood, and offer recommendations for its possible resolution.
Despite a deep level of political-military integration, Belarus has managed to preserve a considerable degree of strategic autonomy within its alliance with Russia.
While Russia and Belarus made final preparations to kick off their quadrennial joint strategic-operational exercise Zapad 2021, the two countries’ air-defense and air force units were put on joint duty as part of the recently established training and combat center in Grodno Oblast, in western Belarus.
After the West extended additional sanctions against Belarus and following Belarusian ruler Alyaksandr Lukashenka’s big press conference on August 9, the Kremlin began signaling its readiness to implement the so-called Armenian model to resolve the political crisis in the country.
The air forces of Russia and Belarus will begin joint air-defense missions out of one of the Belarusian airfields this summer.
On 7 November 2020, the president of Belarus, Aleksander Lukashenko, visited the Astravyets Nuclear Power Plant (Astravyets NPP) and dubbed its pending commissioning a “historic moment” for Belarus.
In his video message marking the International Day of United Nations (UN) Peacekeepers on May 29, the People’s Republic of China (PRC) Ambassador to the UN Zhang Jun (张军) said that China is a major contributor to UN peacekeeping operations (UNPKO) and will “implement its commitment to multilateralism and world peace with concrete actions and make greater contributions to peacekeeping operations for the maintenance of international peace and security” (Xinhua, May 30).
Since 2015 Kremlin consistently has reconsidered the terms and conditions of the strategic deal, cutting the level of integration subsidies and requiring deeper political, military, and economic integration from Belarus.
On May 20, the White House published a new policy document titled United States Strategic Approach to the People’s Republic of China. According to the document, China poses challenges to the economy, values, and security of the United States.
After Belarusian President Alyaksandr Lukashenka rejected the Kremlin’s so-called integration ultimatum at the end of 2019, and following Russian President Vladimir Putin’s announced constitutional changes, the following January, to effectively reset his presidential term tally to zero, some experts argued that a forced unification scenario between Belarus and Russia within the Union State had become significantly less likely.
In response to Russia's efforts, Minsk seeks to reassert and enhance its commitments to regional and international security, while preserving and expanding Belarus’s strategic autonomy within the alliance with Russia.
Despite recent concerns from some security analysts that a new Military Doctrine of the Union State of Russia and Belarus will include provisions for the establishment of a Russian military base on Belarusian soil...
On November 8, 2018, the member states of the Collective Security Treaty Organization held a highly anticipated summit in Astana. Its agenda was determined by three major developments: deteriorating security situation in Afghanistan, political struggle in Armenia and revision of Belarus-Russia relationship
Arseny Sivitsky, Director of the Center for Strategic and Foreign Policy Studies, took part as an independent observer from Belarus in the 8th Beijing Xiangshan Forum on international security
The Republic of Belarus has been a full-fledged member of the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) since 30 January 1992
If you are going to travel to Poland and the Baltic States in your car in the first half of June, prepare to let pass the huge military columns of NATO technology. The “Saber Strike” exercise begins there — regular, but largest in its history in terms of the number of participants. In the military sense, maneuvers do not pose a threat to Belarus, but in the political sense, Moscow will certainly take advantage of them.
At the very first stage of planning the joint Belarus-Russia strategic drills “Zapad-2017” Minsk attempted to solve a complicated dilemma.
Taking into account the coming parliamentary and the presidential elections, the Belarusian authorities are making steps to liberalize the country’s economy
While the joint Russian-Belarussian military exercises Zapad 2017 ended on Sept. 20, Russia’s desire to keep the pressure on former Soviet republics continues
From september 14 — 20 large scale joint military exercises of Russia and Belarus will take place in Belarus
The recent visit of Alexander Lukashenka to Sochi on 15-26 February 2017, which did not include an audience with Vladimir Putin, casts the relationship between Minsk and the Kremlin in an ever more ambiguous light.
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2016 was marked for Belarus with the mild liberalization of its domestic policy in favour of enhancing dialogue with the West. The country is preparing to abandon the socio-economic model of economy and tries to remain neutral balancing in the foreign policy.
Recently, the Russian Ministry of Defence disclosed logistical data of railway traffic to other countries for the upcoming year. It revealed that the Kremlin is planning to significantly increase the amount of military cargo headed for Belarus.
The NATO-Russia confrontation as one of New Cold War’s manifestations has direct implications for the independence, sovereignty and national security of Belarus
Last week’s visit by the Russian Minister of Defence clearly demonstrated the Kremlin’s intentions to undermine the image of Belarus as a country with a predictable and neutral military and foreign policy.
The present report was drafted and finalized by November 15, 2015. But publishing it was impossible due to technical issues.
John Kerry’s visit to Moscow on December 15 was marked by what the public in Russia was eager to call “US concessions to Russia”
The authors of the report Arseny Sivitsky and Yury Tsarik describe the foreign policy of the Russian Federation from the moment preceding the Ukraine crisis as a manifestation of a rational, pragmatic and efficient Moscow’s new geostrategy.
