Arseni Sivitski
The trade wars with Russia and the Moscow’s desire to limit the use of the European raw materials which are “under sanctions” can cost Belarus not only profits but also the trust of the Western partners.
Russian actions toward Belarus since 2015 show that Moscow is no longer pursuing the “union deal” it had established with Minsk earlier and instead has placed its bets on the forced integration of its western neighbor into a Russian-dominated state, according to Arseny Sivitsky
Since the collapse of the USSR, Belarus has not been transformed into a market economy with well-developed and strong democratic institutions and civil society, in contrast to most of the eastern and central European states, including the Baltics
Belarus authorities began preparations for the presidential and parliamentary elections and tried to ease the protest mood with the financial methods. In foreign policy, the trend of balancing between Russian, European, and Chinese directions is still preserved.
The Republic of Belarus has been a full-fledged member of the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) since 30 January 1992
If you are going to travel to Poland and the Baltic States in your car in the first half of June, prepare to let pass the huge military columns of NATO technology. The “Saber Strike” exercise begins there — regular, but largest in its history in terms of the number of participants. In the military sense, maneuvers do not pose a threat to Belarus, but in the political sense, Moscow will certainly take advantage of them.
Arseny Sivitski, Director of Center for Strategic and Foreign Policy Studies contributed to the Bertelsmann Stiftung’s Transformation Index 2018 “Democracy under Pressure: Polarization and Repression Are Increasing Worldwide”.
Despite the President Lukashenko’s absence at the Eastern Partnership summit in Brussels, Belarus set an ambitious goal of signing a fundamental agreement with the EU already in the nearest future
At the very first stage of planning the joint Belarus-Russia strategic drills “Zapad-2017” Minsk attempted to solve a complicated dilemma.
Taking into account the coming parliamentary and the presidential elections, the Belarusian authorities are making steps to liberalize the country’s economy
Some positive dynamics in the Belarusian economy allowed its authorities to flirt with the country’s population and get more points preparing for the future elections. Meanwhile in its foreign policy, despite Belarus demonstrating its ally obligations for the coming military drills, it is still under the Kremlin’s pressure
From september 14 — 20 large scale joint military exercises of Russia and Belarus will take place in Belarus
Sure, they may be about to hold massive joint military exercises. But they’re also arguing about milk, quarreling about customs and border regulations, and squabbling about ports and petroleum exports.
Western officials and the news media have for years routinely described President Aleksandr G. Lukashenko of Belarus as “the last dictator of Europe.”
The national security, defense and law enforcement agencies of Belarus are becoming more powerful, therefore raising concerns that the President no longer controls them as he himself is under their control.
Last Monday, April 3, Lukashenko and Putin met in Saint Petersburg to overcome their controversies. After the meeting they announced that all problems and conflicts will be solved within the next weeks
The recent visit of Alexander Lukashenka to Sochi on 15-26 February 2017, which did not include an audience with Vladimir Putin, casts the relationship between Minsk and the Kremlin in an ever more ambiguous light.
On
2016 was marked for Belarus with the mild liberalization of its domestic policy in favour of enhancing dialogue with the West. The country is preparing to abandon the socio-economic model of economy and tries to remain neutral balancing in the foreign policy.
Recently, the Russian Ministry of Defence disclosed logistical data of railway traffic to other countries for the upcoming year. It revealed that the Kremlin is planning to significantly increase the amount of military cargo headed for Belarus.
The NATO-Russia confrontation as one of New Cold War’s manifestations has direct implications for the independence, sovereignty and national security of Belarus
Last week’s visit by the Russian Minister of Defence clearly demonstrated the Kremlin’s intentions to undermine the image of Belarus as a country with a predictable and neutral military and foreign policy.
The present report was drafted and finalized by November 15, 2015. But publishing it was impossible due to technical issues.
The authors of the report Arseny Sivitsky and Yury Tsarik describe the foreign policy of the Russian Federation from the moment preceding the Ukraine crisis as a manifestation of a rational, pragmatic and efficient Moscow’s new geostrategy.
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